Atmos Energy delivered solid Q4 2024 results consistent with a regime of sustained rate-base growth and capital investment. Reported revenue of $657.9 million and net income of $134.0 million yielded basic EPS of $0.88 for the quarter, with annual diluted EPS of $6.83 for fiscal 2024—up 12% over fiscal 2023 (including a ~$0.17 one-time benefit). Excluding those one-time items, fiscal 2024 EPS rose about 9.2%. The company cited $2.9 billion in annualized operating income increases for fiscal 2024 and a 5-year plan that contemplates roughly $24 billion in capital investments, aimed at modernizing distribution, transmission, and storage infrastructure across six regulated states.
Management reiterated a disciplined capital-allocation strategy emphasizing system modernization, safety, reliability, and regulatory mechanisms to recover costs. The total capex allocate-to-rate base rose about 13% to an estimated $19 billion as of September 30, 2024, positioning Atmos for continued rate-base growth and cash flow generation. Management also signaled a favorable long-term trajectory, initiating fiscal 2025 EPS guidance of $7.05–$7.25 and maintaining a target of 6%–8% fully-regulated EPS growth through fiscal 2029, with 2029 EPS guided to $9.15–$9.55 and rate base around $37 billion.
Key near-term drivers include strong residential and commercial growth (net adds of ~59,000 customers in fiscal 2024, with 46,000 in Texas), robust industrial demand, and the continued monetization of APT (Atmos Pipeline Texas) expansions. The company acknowledged near-term O&M inflation (~4% annually, excluding bad debt) and the SSI (system safety and integrity) mechanism’s incremental O&M impact, while maintaining a flexible financing plan to support the $24 billion five-year capex program. Investors should monitor weather-related demand, commodity-cost dynamics, regulatory filing cadence (roughly 20 rate filings per year), and execution risk associated with large-scale pipeline and storage projects (Line S-2, WA Loop, Bethel/Salt Dome operations).