Alcoa reported a highly EVA-influenced Q3 2025, with GAAP net income of $232 million and adjusted EBITDA of $270 million on revenue of $2.995 billion. However, the quarter featured material one-time items that significantly distorted quarterly comparability: a $786 million gain from the Ma'aden JV sale and a $267 million favorable mark-to-market on Ma'aden shares et al., offset by a $895 million charge related to the permanent Kwinana refinery closure and related asset retirement obligations. Absent these items, the company would have shown a more modest quarterly earnings contribution, with adjusted net income near a small loss ($-6 million) and EBITDA of $270 million. The Aluminum segment benefited from higher realized prices and a stronger shipment tone, while the Alumina segment faced volume/price headwinds tied to bauxite pricing and asset retirement obligations in Brazil.
Management signaled a constructive near-term trajectory: higher fourth-quarter shipments, a working-capital release, and a continued commitment to U.S. primary aluminum capability (Massena) underpinned by a new long-term energy contract and a $60 million investment in the anode bake furnace. The gallium plant initiative in Australia (co-located with Wagerup) underscores Alcoa’s strategic role in the critical minerals supply chain and has broad geopolitical resonance with the U.S., Australia, and Japan. On the risk front, tariff dynamics, LME pricing, and Mozal-related supply concerns remain critical to the forward margin path. Management also indicated continued openness to opportunistic M&A across the product line should synergies create shareholder value, following the Alumina Limited transaction and Ma'aden exchange structure. Forecasts for 2025 include a modest capex cut to $625 million and a lower interest expense run-rate (~$175 million), with ARO/environmental spend rising to about $260 million.