EPS of $0.01 increased by 130.6% from previous year
Gross margin of -40.5%
Net income of 1.27M
""Our target is to hit 3% of the global hashrate this year, which will be 25 exahash by September 2025."" - Aydin Kilic
HIVE Blockchain Technologies Ltd (HIVE) QQ3 2025 Results – Paraguay Expansion Acceleration, Green Energy Mining and AI Cloud Compute Drive Upside
Executive Summary
HIVE delivered a mixed but strategically constructive QQ3 2025, underpinned by aggressive growth initiatives and a transition toward higher-margin, diversified revenue streams. Reported revenue of $29.2 million, with a gross operating margin of $6.1 million (21%), and adjusted EBITDA of $17.3 million. Net income for the quarter was $1.27 million, while basic earnings per share stood at $0.0099. The quarter featured meaningful near-term profitability momentum but a negative gross margin on a year-over-year basis, reflecting the industry-wide halving effects and higher mining difficulty. Crucially, HIVE advanced its long-term growth trajectory via a 25 exahash (EH) pipeline in Paraguay, rising from a 6 EH base to 25 EH by September 2025, representing ~4x incremental capacity and positioning the company as a low-cost, high-velocity grower in the sector.
Management emphasizes capital-efficient growth anchored by ROIC-first deployment, green-energy mining, and strategic AI GPU compute assets. The company targets 3% of the global hashrate (≈25 EH) by 2025 and is actively monetizing GPU/AI compute through Nvidia-based infrastructure (H100/H200) with an annualized AI revenue runway of at least $20–$100 million (depending on utilization), while maintaining a robust HODL position (BTC on balance sheet ~2,805 BTC and digital currency market value of ~$260.8 million as of period end). Additionally, HIVE’s relocation to the US (San Antonio) and transition to US GAAP aim to improve transparency, valuation comparability, and index inclusion prospects. While execution risk remains—most notably closing the Bitfarms Paraguay acquisition and delivering energization on schedule—management’s commentary signals material upside in 2025 should macro conditions in Bitcoin and crypto policy cooperate.
Key Performance Indicators
Revenue
29.87M
QoQ: 31.89% | YoY:-18.64%
Gross Profit
-12.10M
-40.51% margin
QoQ: -1 137.91% | YoY:-2 014.14%
Operating Income
-20.19M
QoQ: -353.85% | YoY:-227.35%
Net Income
1.27M
QoQ: 116.53% | YoY:136.85%
EPS
0.01
QoQ: 115.33% | YoY:130.56%
Revenue Trend
Margin Analysis
Key Insights
Revenue: $29.2M (Q3 2025) vs $31.3M prior-year quarter; QoQ up from $22.6M (Q2 2025).
Gross margin: $6.1M (21% of revenue), down from $11.3M (36%) YoY due to halving and higher mining difficulty.
EBITDA: $17.3M (adjusted EBITDA, non-IFRS).
Net income: $1.27M in the quarter; EPS $0.0099; Diluted EPS $0.0096.
Bitcoin mined in the period: 322 BTC equivalent.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: $29.2M (Q3 2025) vs $31.3M prior-year quarter; QoQ up from $22.6M (Q2 2025).
- Gross margin: $6.1M (21% of revenue), down from $11.3M (36%) YoY due to halving and higher mining difficulty.
- EBITDA: $17.3M (adjusted EBITDA, non-IFRS).
- Net income: $1.27M in the quarter; EPS $0.0099; Diluted EPS $0.0096.
- Bitcoin mined in the period: 322 BTC equivalent.
- HODL BTC on balance sheet: 2,805 BTC; Bitcoin market value ~ $260.8M.
- Cash and equivalents: $9.8M; Digital currencies: $260.8M; Current ratio: 10.4x; Net debt: $15.36M.
- Hashrate footprint: 6 EH online; 25 EH pipeline targeted by September 2025 ( Paraguay 300 MW LOI with Bitfarms + additional expansions).
- Fleet efficiency: target 16.5 joules per terahash (J/TH) across the full fleet.
- AI/cloud compute: ~$10M annualized AI revenue run-rate; H100/H200 GPU clusters with potential $20–$100M annualized revenue runway; plan to rent to single customers with Tier 3 capability.
Income Statement
Metric
Value
YoY Change
QoQ Change
Revenue
29.87M
-18.64%
31.89%
Gross Profit
-12.10M
-2 014.14%
-1 137.91%
Operating Income
-20.19M
-227.35%
-353.85%
Net Income
1.27M
136.85%
116.53%
EPS
0.01
130.56%
115.33%
Key Financial Ratios
currentRatio
10.41
grossProfitMargin
-40.5%
operatingProfitMargin
-67.6%
netProfitMargin
4.24%
returnOnAssets
0.27%
returnOnEquity
0.29%
debtEquityRatio
0.06
operatingCashFlowPerShare
$-0.14
freeCashFlowPerShare
$-0.7
priceToBookRatio
0.84
priceEarningsRatio
72.32
Net Income vs. Revenue
Expense Breakdown
Management Commentary
- Strategic growth and capital allocation: management reiterates ROIC-first deployment and disciplined capex to maximize value per hash. Emphasis on accretive capex via ASIC suppliers (Bitmain, Canaan) at attractive prices, with ~15 EH contracted and 10 EH of that in Paraguay slated to energize as expansions complete.
- Paraguay expansion and regional opportunity: LOI to acquire 200 MW site in Yguazú, expanding to 25 EH globally and enabling a fleet efficiency target of 16.5 J/TH; first 100 MW tranche (6 EH) will be air-cooled (16.5 J/TH) followed by hydro (15 J/TH) at Valenzuela and a final tranche for remaining capacity.
- US GAAP transition and US presence: relocation to San Antonio to align with “America first” energy policy, regulatory clarity, and easier comparability; potential for Russell 2000 inclusion with improved governance and reporting.
- AI/GPU compute expansion: 4,000 A-series GPUs active with Montreal and Stockholm; H100 cluster shipped and 4M–9M revenue contribution anticipated from H100/H200 clusters; target of $20M annualized AI revenue (with long-term goal of $100M-plus hosted compute revenue).
"Our target is to hit 3% of the global hashrate this year, which will be 25 exahash by September 2025."
— Aydin Kilic
"For every HIVE share that you purchase, you're getting 78% Bitcoin per share."
— Aydin Kilic
Forward Guidance
- Hashrate and Bitcoin pricing sensitivity: management projects 25 EH by September 2025 representing ~3% of global hashrate; upside is sensitive to Bitcoin price trajectories (scenarios cited at $100k/$125k/$150k+). Near-term profitability will remain influenced by halving effects, network difficulty, and electricity costs, though Paraguay’s green energy mix is designed to lower per-coin costs over time.
- Revenue mix shift: continued expansion in green mining alongside growing HPC/AI revenue; management expects HPC to contribute meaningfully to annualized revenue (target of $20–$100M, progressing toward a $100M+ objective as Tier 3 infra monetizes).
- Financing and capital structure: while the ATM remains a key funding mechanism, management notes disciplined use and exploration of debt only if cost of capital is favorable and aligns with ROIC targets; potential to diversify funding without diluting equity materially.
- Key monitoring factors for investors: energization timelines for Paraguay assets (Bitfarms LOI), integration of new ASIC orders (Bitmain, Canaan), progress of H100/H200 deployments and customer bookings, regulatory developments in the US, Bitcoin price volatility, and the evolution of the AI cloud computing ARR run-rate.
Competitive Position
Company
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Return on Equity
P/E Ratio
HIVE Focus
-40.51%
-67.60%
0.29%
72.32%
BITF
-26.30%
-97.90%
-7.16%
-6.46%
CLSK
40.10%
-2.39%
-16.80%
-4.34%
MARA
-50.90%
-1.31%
-4.37%
-9.58%
RIOT
-56.80%
-1.43%
-5.62%
-3.44%
Gross Profit Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Return on Equity
P/E Ratio Comparison
Investment Outlook
HIVE presents a compelling long-term investment thesis anchored in a scalable, capital-efficient growth model, underpinned by a diversified revenue mix and a blue-sky AI cloud compute opportunity. The Paraguay 25 EH expansion, if energized on schedule, could unlock substantial upside in EBITDA and cash flow, supported by a fleet efficiency target of 16.5 J/TH and a relatively low energy cost structure through hydro and green sources. The company’s disciplined ROIC-first approach, coupled with a robust BTC treasury (~$261M) and a positive quarter in net income, enhances downside resilience in a volatile Bitcoin cycle. Additionally, the AI GPU compute initiative (H100/H200) provides a meaningful revenue stream that complements base mining, potentially delivering steady hosted compute revenues and upside from Nvidia-enabled deployments. Management’s emphasis on US GAAP alignment and relocation to San Antonio should improve comparability, governance, and access to institutional capital, including potential index inclusion and broader coverage by research houses.
Key risks to monitor include execution risk on the Paraguay energization timeline and the Bitfarms acquisition, BTC price sensitivity, and regulatory risk across major markets. Nevertheless, the combination of a multi-year growth runway (25 EH by mid-2025), an expanding AI/cloud compute revenue opportunity, and a disciplined capital allocation framework creates a favorable probability-weighted outlook for HIVE in a crypto mining landscape that is gradually converging toward institutional acceptance and scalable data-center economics. Investors should monitor the energization progress, the H100/H200 deployment cadence, the rate of HP/AI adoption by enterprise clients, and the evolving regulatory backdrop as the principal drivers of 2025 performance and beyond.
Key Investment Factors
Growth Potential
- 25 EH target by Sep-2025 represents a ~4x uplift from the current 6 EH baseline and positions HIVE as a fast-growing, low-cost producer with sector-leading fleet efficiency (16.5 J/TH).
- AI GPU compute expansion (H100/H200) adds a potentially material annuity from HPC co-location and service revenue, with AI revenue already at ~$10M annualized and a target path to $20M, then $100M+.
- US GAAP transition and proximity to US markets may unlock index inclusions and greater institutional demand; potential for higher valuation multiples in data-center-like economics.
- Strategic partnerships and accretive ASIC procurement (Bitmain, Canaan) support faster ramp to 25 EH with favorable ROI.
Profitability Risk
- Bitcoin price volatility and mining rewards sensitivity (halving impact observed; higher network difficulty).
- Execution risk in Paraguay energization and integration of Bitfarms assets; dependence on Bitfarms closing and energization timelines.
- Regulatory risk in the US and globally; crypto policy shifts could affect operations, capital markets access, and tax treatment.
- Capital allocation risk, including reliance on the ATM and potential debt facilities; dilutive impact if debt terms are unfavorable or if Bitcoin declines, impacting the HODL strategy.
- Inventory/asset concentration risk given high current assets and the need to maintain energy supply continuity across large green-field deployments.
Financial Position
- Strong liquidity and balance sheet solidity with cash of $9.8M and BTC holdings of $260.8M; current ratio of 10.4x and net debt of $15.36M.
- Enterprise value per exahash remains attractive relative to peers, supported by a high BTC treasury percentage of enterprise value (VanEck analysis cited in-transcript).
- Growth-backstop via ROIC discipline; ROIC annualized reported at ~9.3% with management highlighting 37% (quarterly/annualized) trajectory earlier, suggesting disciplined capital deployment and potential for strong cash flow generation as 25 EH comes online.
- QoQ negative gross margin due to halving and higher network difficulty, but EBITDA remained robust, and net income turned positive for the quarter; cash burn from investing activities was offset by financing inflows, with net cash increase modestly positive.
- Inventory/asset level, including significant crypto inventories, implies ongoing valuation sensitivity to commodity-like BTC pricing and accounting for mining costs; ongoing transition to US GAAP may improve comparability and reduce perceived accounting volatility.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Leading growth trajectory in 2025 with a 25 EH pipeline targeting 3% of global hashrate by Sep-2025; 6 EH online today with 25 EH due in 2025.
Best-in-class fleet efficiency target of 16.5 J/TH and strong uptime claims.
Strategic Paraguay expansion leveraging low-cost green energy; LOI for 200 MW site (Yguazú) with Bitfarms expanding to 300 MW portfolio.
Discipline capital allocation (ROIC-first deployment) and leading industry EBITDA/EV metrics; low equity dilution relative to peers.
HODL strategy providing BTC treasury value of ~$260.8M supporting balance sheet resilience; strong liquidity position.
US GAAP transition and relocation to San Antonio to align with crypto-friendly policy and improve valuation comparability.
Nvidia-based HPC offerings (H100/H200) with immediate revenue contribution and long-term hosted compute potential.
Weaknesses
Near-term gross margin pressure due to Bitcoin halving, higher network difficulty and volatile BTC prices.
Significant dependence on Paraguay energization timing and Bitfarms transaction closing; execution risk in rapid scale-up.
Concentration risk in large-scale energy projects and capital intensive expansions; potential capex overruns or supply chain constraints for ASIC orders (Bitmain, Canaan).
Net debt still present ( ~$15.4M) despite strong BTC treasury; reliance on ATM and potential need for further financing.
High inventory on balance sheet; accounting for crypto assets introduces volatility risk from pricing swings.
Regulatory risk in the US and abroad; possible policy shifts could impact mining economics or capital markets access.
Opportunities
AI/GPUs revenue growth through Nvidia reference architecture (H100/H200) with potential $100M annualized revenue runway; targeted $20M annualized AI revenue in the near term.
Increased institutional and RIAs interest in Bitcoin ETFs and crypto mining equities (VanEck support, BlackRock ETF adoption) improving demand for mining equities.
Possible US market expansion and index inclusions (Russell 2000) as GAAP reporting and governance align with investor expectations.
Co-location and Tier 3 data center opportunities; potential to monetize existing green energy assets and grow recurring revenue streams.
Enhanced auditability and transparency via blockchain-enabled energy accounting and crypto asset tracking that could improve capital allocation efficiency.
Threats
Bitcoin price downside or prolonged volatility affecting profitability and HODL value.
Delays or failures in energization timelines at Paraguay (Bitfarms acquisition) could deflate growth expectations.
Regulatory tightening or adverse crypto policy in major markets (US SEC actions, global tax changes) could impact mining economics and capital access.
Competition risk as peers scale (Bitfarms, MARA, RIOT, BITF) with varied ROIC profiles and capital markets access.
Technology risk around ASIC supply, power price volatility, and energy infrastructure reliability.